2026 ballot measure forecast
Ohio Issue 3
Put photo voter ID in Ohio Constitution
Requires an approved government-issued photo ID to vote in person, with a religious-objection alternative; absentee voters also need photo ID unless law allows signature plus another identifier. The forecast has Yes at 69.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.6%80% range 62 to 76
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
66.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
88 of 88 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 75.3% Yes
- Polls
- 66.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 69.6% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. SJR 10 (2026); Ohio's only statewide issue this year.
The campaign
Yes: GOP legislators, Honest Elections Project Action. No: Ohio Citizen Action and voting rights groups. No money totals found.
Polls of the measure
2 pollsHow this is built
Issue 3 is forecast as a voter id measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Ohio's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: ohiocapitaljournal.com, cleveland19.com, ohiosos.gov, ohiocitizen.org. All measures.