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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

California Proposition 45

Fast track CEQA review for essential projects

Speeds and narrows environmental review and judicial challenges under CEQA for housing, water, clean energy and other essential projects. The forecast has Yes at 52.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 63% chance to pass.

Leans passCitizen initiated statuteEnvironment and energyUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
63%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
52.1%
80% range 44 to 60
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
50.7%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

58 of 58 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
55.0% Yes
Polls
50.7% Yes
Forecast
52.1% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Over 13.7 million in supporter funding; no organized opposition committee reported as of March 31, 2026.

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Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 37
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Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
17%
Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)1,103 LV2026-09-10494650.7%
How this is built
Proposition 45 is forecast as a environment and energy measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org, cpapracticeadvisor.com. All measures.