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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Nebraska Constitutional Amendment 1

Allow three consecutive legislative terms

Lets state senators serve three consecutive four-year terms instead of two. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 97% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
97%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 56 to 79
Needs
50%
a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

93 of 93 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.
The campaign

Referred by the Legislature in May 2025; no organized campaigns or money reported.

Also on the Nebraska ballot

Initiative Measure 440
Legalize online sports betting through racetracks
22%
Initiative Measure 441
Regulate online sports betting
28%
Initiative Measure 442
Sex-separate school and college sports teams
94%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 1 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.