2026 ballot measure forecast
Massachusetts Question 8
Repeal recreational marijuana sales
Prohibits retail sales of recreational marijuana, repeals home cultivation, and sets new possession limits and civil penalties; medical marijuana unaffected. The forecast has Yes at 29.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a <1% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
<1%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
29.8%80% range 25 to 35
Needs
50%a majority, with Yes at least 30 percent of all ballots
Polling average
29.6%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
0 of 14 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 30.6% Yes
- Polls
- 29.6% Yes
- Forecast
- 29.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Initiative statute: majority of votes on the question AND yes votes at least 30 percent of all ballots cast.
The campaign
Coalition For a Healthy Massachusetts funded mostly by SAM Action Inc. (nearly $3.2M); Massachusetts Cannabis Coalition and industry opposing with almost $1.6M.
Also on the Massachusetts ballot
Question 1
Apply public records law to Legislature and governor
>99%
Question 2
Collective bargaining for public defender agency staff
>99%
Question 3
Single all-party primary, top two advance
60%
Question 4
Election Day voter registration
>99%
Question 5
Change state revenue cap and rebate excess
98%
Question 6
Create Nature for All conservation fund
>99%
Question 7
Allow single-family homes on smaller lots
>99%
Question 9
Keep or repeal 2024 gun law
>99%
Polls of the measure
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-10-12 | 31 | 61 | 5 | 33.7% |
| MassINC Polling Group | 800 LV | 2026-09-22 | 27 | 61 | 11 | 31.0% |
| UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll) | 564 LV | 2026-09-21 | 24 | 71 | 5 | 25.7% |
| Suffolk University Political Research Center | 500 LV | 2026-08-16 | 16.2 | 79 | 4.4 | 17.7% |
| UMass Amherst Poll / YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-08-12 | 33 | 55 | 10 | 37.1% |
| UNH Survey Center (Bay State Poll) | 620 LV | 2026-02-16 | 20 | 63 | 16 | 25.6% |
How this is built
Question 8 is forecast as a marijuana measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Massachusetts's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sec.state.ma.us, boston.com, nbcboston.com, commonwealthbeacon.org. All measures.