2026 ballot measure forecast

Idaho HJR 6

English as official state language

Adds a constitutional provision making English the official language of Idaho. The forecast has Yes at 66.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOtherUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

95%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

66.6%

80% range 54 to 77

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

44 of 44 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 66.6% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 66.6% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.

The campaign

Referred by Republican legislature; opponents note state law already designates English.

Also on the Idaho ballot

Advisory Question

Advisory vote on official state gun

49%

HJR 4

Only Legislature may legalize marijuana and drugs

86%

Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act

Restore abortion access before viability

23%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

HJR 6 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: legislature.idaho.gov , kmvt.com. All measures.