SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Tennessee Amendment 3

Marsy's Law crime victims' rights

Rewrites and expands the constitutional list of crime victims' rights, including notice, being heard, restitution and a speedy trial. The forecast has Yes at 69.0 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
95%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
69.0%
80% range 57 to 79
Needs
53.2%
a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

95 of 95 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580
History and structure
69.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
69.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Must receive a majority of all votes cast in the governor's race, not just a majority of votes on the amendment.
The campaign

No visible campaign; some question cost implications.

Also on the Tennessee ballot

Amendment 1
Remove right to bail for specified serious offenses
>99%
Amendment 2
Ban a state property tax
98%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 3 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Tennessee's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, tennesseelookout.com, fox17.com. All measures.