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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Montana CI-132

Keep judicial elections nonpartisan

Amends the constitution to require that judicial elections remain nonpartisan. The forecast has Yes at 51.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 60% chance to pass.

Leans passCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentOtherUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
60%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
51.7%
80% range 39 to 65
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

17 of 56 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
51.7% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
51.7% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Montanans for Nonpartisan Courts, over 3.3 million raised through June 25; Montana Republican Party opposes.

Also on the Montana ballot

CI-133
Protect initiative and referendum rights
49%
I-194
Bar corporate political spending via charter limits
86%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
CI-132 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.