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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Nebraska Initiative Measure 442

Sex-separate school and college sports teams

Adds to the constitution a requirement that public K-12 schools, colleges and private schools that compete with them designate teams as male, female or coed and bar males from female teams, making part of a 2025 law permanent. The forecast has Yes at 65.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 94% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated constitutional amendmentTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
94%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.4%
80% range 52 to 76
Needs
50%
a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

93 of 93 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
65.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
65.4% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election. A Nebraska Supreme Court challenge was argued Sept 30, 2026; the state says any reversal must come by Oct 27.
The campaign

Yes: Fairness for Girls campaign, record of about 211K signatures. No: legal challenge by Lincoln voter Cara Ullman; no funded No campaign reported.

Also on the Nebraska ballot

Constitutional Amendment 1
Allow three consecutive legislative terms
97%
Initiative Measure 440
Legalize online sports betting through racetracks
22%
Initiative Measure 441
Regulate online sports betting
28%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Initiative Measure 442 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, newsfromthestates.com, nebraskaexaminer.com, nebraskaexaminer.com. All measures.