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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Alaska Ballot Measure 3

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Amends state law to provide that only U.S. citizens may vote in any Alaska election. The forecast has Yes at 78.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteCitizen only votingUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
78.2%
80% range 67 to 86
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

30 of 30 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
78.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
78.2% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative (indirect statute); no campaign finance found.

Also on the Alaska ballot

Ballot Measure 2
Repeal open primaries and ranked choice voting
35%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Ballot Measure 3 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alaska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org, akcommonground.org. All measures.