2026 ballot measure forecast
Arkansas Issue 2
Right to bear arms shall not be infringed
Declares the right to keep and bear arms, including ammunition, accessories and components, a natural, fundamental and individual right that shall not be infringed. The forecast has Yes at 72.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
>99%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
72.5%80% range 65 to 79
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
70.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
75 of 75 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 75.3% Yes
- Polls
- 70.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 72.5% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
Supporters say it clarifies what arms covers; opponents worry the without limitation wording could conflict with bans on gun possession by felons or domestic abusers; no money reported.
Polls of the measure
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll | 1,217 LV | 2026-08-12 | 67 | 23 | 10 | 70.3% |
How this is built
Issue 2 is forecast as a guns measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arkansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: axios.com, theballotbrief.com, talkbusiness.net, uaex.uada.edu. All measures.