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2026 ballot measure forecast

California Proposition 2

Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent

Doubles the state budget reserve cap from 10 to 20 percent of the General Fund and changes deposit and debt payment rules. The forecast has Yes at 63.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureBonds and budgetsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
63.0%
80% range 56 to 70
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
60.3%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

58 of 58 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
68.1% Yes
Polls
60.3% Yes
Forecast
63.0% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

ACA 20 placed by legislative Democrats as part of the 2026 budget deal.

Also on the California ballot

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Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 37
Loans for middle income buyers of new homes
95%
Proposition 38
Immunology research bonds
90%
Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
17%
Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)1,103 LV2026-09-10603960.3%
How this is built
Proposition 2 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org. All measures.