2026 ballot measure forecast

Wisconsin Question 2

Bar closing places of worship during emergencies

Bars the state or local governments from closing places of worship or forbidding gatherings for worship during a state of emergency, including a public health emergency. The forecast has Yes at 55.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 72% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCivil rightsUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

72%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

55.6%

80% range 42 to 69

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

69 of 72 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 55.6% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 55.6% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Simple majority.

The campaign

Yes: Rep. Ron Tusler, Sen. Cory Tomczyk and GOP lawmakers. No: public health advocates and critics who call it vague. No money reported.

Also on the Wisconsin ballot

Question 1

Bar partial veto to raise taxes or fees

85%

Question 3

Ban government discrimination or preferences by race or sex

71%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Question 2 is forecast as a civil rights measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Wisconsin's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wpr.org , somerswi.gov. All measures.