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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Michigan Proposal 2

Ban political donations from utilities and big contractors

Bars regulated gas and electric utilities and companies with over $250,000 in state contracts, plus people tied to them, from making political contributions, and expands disclosure for candidate ads. The forecast has Yes at 71.3 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passCitizen initiated statuteGovernment and ethicsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
71.3%
80% range 64 to 78
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
75.5%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

83 of 83 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
64.6% Yes
Polls
75.5% Yes
Forecast
71.3% Yes
Yes leans
Democratic
Rule to pass
Simple majority. Indirect initiated statute; Legislature did not act by Sept. 5, so it went to the ballot; survived a Michigan Supreme Court challenge.
The campaign

Yes: Michiganders for Money Out of Politics, $7.4M raised incl. $5.4M from All Hands on Deck; backed by all four Democratic statewide nominees. No: Protect MI Free Speech, about $579K from DTE and CMS affiliates and BCBS of Michigan (late July reports).

Also on the Michigan ballot

Proposal 1
Call a state constitutional convention
81%

Polls of the measure

2 polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Glengariff Group600 LV2026-09-0371.5161375.5%
Not named · for the Yes side 2026-05-31
How this is built
Proposal 2 is forecast as a government and ethics measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Michigan's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: michiganpublic.org, michiganadvance.com, planetdetroit.org, votersnotpoliticians.com. All measures.