2026 ballot measure forecast
Montana CI-133
Protect initiative and referendum rights
Adds initiative and referendum rights to the Declaration of Rights, applies strict scrutiny to limits, and sets rules for ballot language and signature gathering. The forecast has Yes at 49.7 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 49% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
49%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
49.7%80% range 37 to 63
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
12 of 56 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 49.7% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 49.7% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Montanans Decide, over 2 million raised; opposed by Rep. Braxton Mitchell side.
Also on the Montana ballot
CI-132
Keep judicial elections nonpartisan
60%
I-194
Bar corporate political spending via charter limits
86%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
CI-133 is forecast as a elections measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Montana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sosmt.gov, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.