2026 ballot measure forecast
Michigan Proposal 1
Call a state constitutional convention
A Yes vote calls a convention to revise the Michigan Constitution, with 148 delegates elected in partisan races by state House and Senate district; any new constitution would go back to voters. The forecast has Yes at 56.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 81% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
81%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
56.1%80% range 47 to 64
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
54.3%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
83 of 83 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 58.7% Yes
- Polls
- 54.3% Yes
- Forecast
- 56.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. Automatic question every 16 years (Art. XII Sec. 3); rejected in 1978, 1994, 2010 (67% No in 2010).
The campaign
No: bipartisan Protect MI Constitution From Special Interests coalition (ACLU of Michigan, Michigan Chamber, Michigan AFL-CIO, MEA, Working Families Party; Detroit Regional Chamber also opposed). No organized Yes campaign or spending reported.
Also on the Michigan ballot
Proposal 2
Ban political donations from utilities and big contractors
>99%
Polls of the measure
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glengariff Group | 600 LV | 2026-09-03 | 47 | 31 | 22 | 54.3% |
How this is built
Proposal 1 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Michigan's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: michiganpublic.org, theballotbrief.com, newsfromthestates.com, detroitchamber.com. All measures.