2026 ballot measure forecast
Missouri Amendment 3
Repeal 2024 abortion rights amendment, restrict abortion
Repeals the 2024 reproductive freedom amendment, allows abortion only for medical emergencies, fetal anomalies, and rape or incest before 12 weeks, requires parental consent for minors, permits regulation, and bans gender transition procedures for minors. The forecast has Yes at 48.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 42% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
42%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
48.5%80% range 40 to 57
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
47.4%Yes, with undecided split two to one for No
County forecast
107 of 115 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 50.1% Yes
- Polls
- 47.4% Yes
- Forecast
- 48.5% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority. HCS HJR 73 (2025).
The campaign
Yes: GOP legislature, Missouri Catholic Conference and anti-abortion groups. No: abortion rights coalition campaign launched May 27, 2026. Money not captured.
Polls of the measure
2 pollsHow this is built
Amendment 3 is forecast as a abortion measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Missouri's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.mo.gov, slu.edu, missouriindependent.com, missouriindependent.com. All measures.