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2026 ballot measure forecast

California Proposition 38

Immunology research bonds

Authorizes 8.4 billion in general obligation bonds for immunology and immunotherapy research through an institute and competitive grants. The forecast has Yes at 57.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 90% chance to pass.

Likely to passCitizen initiated statuteBonds and budgetsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
90%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
57.8%
80% range 50 to 65
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
56.0%
Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

56 of 58 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
61.2% Yes
Polls
56.0% Yes
Forecast
57.8% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Bankrolled by billionaire surgeon Gary Michelson. LAO estimates about 500 million a year from General Fund for about 25 years.

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Affordable housing and veterans housing bond
93%
Proposition 2
Raise rainy day fund cap to 20 percent
>99%
Proposition 3
Make top income tax rates permanent
92%
Proposition 4
Allow public financing of campaigns
60%
Proposition 5
Recall: remove successor election
39%
Proposition 37
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Proposition 39
Voter ID and citizenship verification
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Proposition 40
One time 5 percent billionaire wealth tax
65%
Proposition 41
Audits of new special taxes, Gann limit rule
31%
Proposition 42
Ban new state wealth and personal property taxes
66%
Proposition 43
Two thirds vote for local special taxes
4%
Proposition 44
Community clinics must spend 90 percent on services
7%
Proposition 45
Fast track CEQA review for essential projects
63%

Polls of the measure

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC Statewide Survey)1,103 LV2026-09-10554256.0%
How this is built
Proposition 38 is forecast as a bonds and budgets measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with California's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov, growsf.org, ppic.org. All measures.