2026 ballot measure forecast

Maryland Question 1

Require budget to fund state worker contracts

Requires the governor's budget to fully fund state employee collective bargaining agreements, including terms set by a neutral arbitrator (HB 604, Arbitration Reform for State Employees Act of 2026). The forecast has Yes at 75.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureLaborUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

75.5%

80% range 64 to 84

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

24 of 24 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 75.5% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 75.5% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Simple majority.

The campaign

Backed by state employee unions; no organized campaign or money reported in sources reviewed.

Also on the Maryland ballot

Question 2

Temporary appointments to judicial disabilities commission

91%

Question 3

Remove constitutional limits on congressional districting

16%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Question 1 is forecast as a labor measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Maryland's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.maryland.gov , theballotbrief.com. All measures.