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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Alabama Statewide Amendment 2

Process for merging county school systems

Creates a constitutional process for merging neighboring county school systems, with a State Board of Education impact study and a protest and referendum procedure. The forecast has Yes at 60.1 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 84% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureEducationUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
84%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
60.1%
80% range 47 to 72
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

67 of 67 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
60.1% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
60.1% Yes
Yes leans
Neither party
The campaign

Sponsored by Rep. Terri Collins R; passed House 96 to 2 and Senate unanimously; no organized campaign reported.

Also on the Alabama ballot

Statewide Amendment 1
Lieutenant governor vacancies and legislative officer pay
97%
Statewide Amendment 3
Daily Pledge and student led prayer in schools
95%
Statewide Amendment 4
Weekly national anthem in public schools
96%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Statewide Amendment 2 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alabama's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: alabamareflector.com, theballotbrief.com, sos.alabama.gov. All measures.