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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Missouri Amendment 8

Constitutionally require elected county sheriffs

Writes four-year county sheriff elections and sheriff duties into the constitution, with St. Louis area exceptions, and allows removal only by quo warranto initiated by the Attorney General. The forecast has Yes at 76.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCriminal justiceUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
76.0%
80% range 65 to 84
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

115 of 115 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
76.0% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
76.0% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority. CCS HCS SS SJR 87 (2026).
The campaign

Placed by GOP legislature; no campaign or money reported.

Also on the Missouri ballot

Amendment 3
Repeal 2024 abortion rights amendment, restrict abortion
42%
Amendment 6
Protect citizen initiatives from legislative repeal
77%
Amendment 7
Create Show-Me Prosperity Fund to replace state taxes
94%
Proposition A
Keep 2025 Republican-drawn congressional map
44%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 8 is forecast as a criminal justice measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Missouri's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: sos.mo.gov, kcur.org. All measures.