2026 ballot measure forecast

Utah Amendment B

60 percent vote for tax raising initiatives

Requires 60 percent voter approval for citizen initiatives that create, raise or expand taxes. The forecast has Yes at 56.3 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 83% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureHigher bars to passUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

83%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

56.3%

80% range 48 to 65

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

61.3%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

26 of 29 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 49.0% Yes
Polls: 61.3% Yes
Forecast: 56.3% Yes
Yes leans: Republican
Rule to pass: Amendment B itself needs a simple majority.

The campaign

Sponsored by Sen. Lincoln Fillmore and Rep. Jason Kyle, backed by Utah Taxpayers Association and Taxpayer Shield PAC; opposed by Utahns Protecting Our Constitution (Better Boundaries), described as a million dollar campaign.

Also on the Utah ballot

Amendment A

Flexible publication of proposed amendments

91%

Polls of the measure

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Noble Predictive Insights	602 RV	2026-09-12	50	21	23	61.3%

How this is built

Amendment B is forecast as a higher bars to pass measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Utah's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: deseret.com , ksl.com , axios.com. All measures.