2026 ballot measure forecast
Nebraska Initiative Measure 441
Regulate online sports betting
Statute defining online sports betting and requiring the Nebraska Racing and Gaming Commission to adopt rules by June 1, 2027. The forecast has Yes at 43.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 28% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
28%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
43.8%80% range 31 to 57
Needs
50%a majority, with Yes at least 35 percent of all ballots
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
0 of 93 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 43.8% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 43.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Majority of those voting on the measure, and Yes votes must also equal at least 35% of total ballots cast in the election.
The campaign
Companion to IM 440, same Tax Relief Nebraska campaign and sportsbook backers.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Initiative Measure 441 is forecast as a gambling measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Nebraska's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.