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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

West Virginia Amendment 1

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Adds a requirement to the constitution that only U.S. citizens who are West Virginia residents may vote, barring local noncitizen voting. The forecast has Yes at 86.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCitizen only votingUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
86.8%
80% range 79 to 92
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

55 of 55 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
86.8% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
86.8% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

SJR 9 passed unanimously; Americans for Citizen Voting supports; League of Women Voters of WV and WV Citizen Action Group oppose; no money reported.

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Amendment 1 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with West Virginia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, news.ballotpedia.org, theballotbrief.com. All measures.