2026 ballot measure forecast

Arkansas Issue 1

Only U.S. citizens may vote

Amends the constitution so only U.S. citizens who meet state qualifications may vote in state and local elections in Arkansas. The forecast has Yes at 74.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCitizen only votingUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

74.8%

80% range 68 to 81

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

64.3%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

75 of 75 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 85.3% Yes
Polls: 64.3% Yes
Forecast: 74.8% Yes
Yes leans: Republican

The campaign

Legislative referral; critics cited by the UA Public Policy Center say it could lead to stricter proof of citizenship rules; no campaign money reported.

Also on the Arkansas ballot

Issue 2

Right to bear arms shall not be infringed

>99%

Issue 3

Economic development districts and public loans

72%

Issue 4

$500 million water infrastructure bonds

>99%

Polls of the measure

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll	1,217 LV	2026-08-12	60	27	13	64.3%

How this is built

Issue 1 is forecast as a citizen only voting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arkansas's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: axios.com , theballotbrief.com , talkbusiness.net , uaex.uada.edu. All measures.