2026 ballot measure forecast

Virginia Question 1

Right to reproductive freedom including abortion

Adds a constitutional right to make one's own decisions about pregnancy, contraception, abortion and fertility care, allowing third trimester restrictions with health exceptions. The forecast has Yes at 71.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureAbortionUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

71.0%

80% range 59 to 81

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

114 of 133 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 71.0% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 71.0% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic

The campaign

Supported by Gov. Spanberger, ACLU of Virginia, Planned Parenthood Virginia, Reproductive Freedom for All; opposed by Winsome Earle-Sears' vote no tour, Virginia Catholic Conference, Family Foundation; money not found.

Also on the Virginia ballot

Question 2

Repeal same sex marriage ban

97%

Question 3

Automatic voting rights restoration after prison

95%

Polls of the measure

1 poll

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Christopher Newport University Wason Center	807 RV	2026-01-20	66

How this is built

Question 1 is forecast as a abortion measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Virginia's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.virginia.gov , theballotbrief.com , cardinalnews.org , news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.