2026 ballot measure forecast

Florida Amendment 2

Property tax exemption for farm equipment

Exempts tangible personal property such as farm equipment used for agricultural production or agritourism on agricultural land from property taxes starting in 2027. The forecast has Yes at 65.7 percent against the 60 percent it needs, a 73% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureProperty taxUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

73%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

65.7%

80% range 53 to 77

Needs

60%

60 percent of the votes on the question

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

67 of 67 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 60

2035506580

History and structure: 65.7% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 65.7% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Florida constitutional amendments need 60% of votes cast on the measure.

The campaign

Sponsored by Sen. Keith Truenow R; Hillsborough County Democratic Party opposes; about $31M a year local revenue loss estimated; no money reported.

Also on the Florida ballot

Amendment 1

Bigger rainy day fund with required deposits

70%

Amendment 3

Large homestead property tax cut toward elimination

65%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Amendment 2 is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Florida's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wlrn.org , theballotbrief.com , constitutionalinitiatives.dos.fl.gov. All measures.