2026 ballot measure forecast
Louisiana Amendment 8
Bar foreign adversaries from expropriating property
Prohibits foreign adversaries and their agents from using expropriation to acquire private property. The forecast has Yes at 64.5 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 91% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
91%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
64.5%80% range 51 to 76
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
64 of 64 parishes vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 64.5% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 64.5% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
The campaign
Legislative referral; no organized campaign, money or polling reported; PAR Louisiana guide summarizes arguments.
Also on the Louisiana ballot
Amendment 1
Surviving spouse can transfer disabled veteran exemption
94%
Amendment 2
Keep right to restore prior maximum millage
94%
Amendment 3
No post conviction bail for crimes against minors
>99%
Amendment 4
Lifetime two term limit for governor
97%
Amendment 5
Flexibility in paying retirement system debt
92%
Amendment 6
Extra local property tax exemption for seniors
94%
Amendment 7
Public funds for private drinking water lines
88%
Amendment 9
Raise income limit for assessment freeze to $150,000
93%
Amendment 10
Tax exemption for rehabilitated blighted property
93%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 8 is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Louisiana's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wafb.com, theballotbrief.com, news.ballotpedia.org. All measures.