2026 ballot measure forecast

North Carolina Income Tax Cap Amendment

Cap state income tax rate at 3.5%

Lowers the constitutional cap on the state income tax rate from 7% to 3.5%. The forecast has Yes at 67.9 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureIncome taxUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

>99%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

67.9%

80% range 60 to 75

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

71.6%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

100 of 100 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 62.5% Yes
Polls: 71.6% Yes
Forecast: 67.9% Yes
Yes leans: Republican

The campaign

Backed by Republican legislators; NC groups launched a campaign to defeat the two tax amendments; no money reported.

Also on the North Carolina ballot

Photo ID Amendment

Photo ID for all voters including mail

>99%

Property Tax Limit Amendment

Require limits on local property tax increases

>99%

Polls of the measure

2 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
Elon University Poll / YouGov	LV	2026-08-31	67	18	16	71.6%
YouGov	1,000 A		67

How this is built

Income Tax Cap Amendment is forecast as a income tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Carolina's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: s3.amazonaws.com , theballotbrief.com , ncnewsline.com , elon.edu. All measures.