2026 ballot measure forecast
Colorado Amendment 86
Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting
Requires both the independent commission and state Supreme Court to approve any mid decade congressional map and bars partisan maps. The forecast has Yes at 38.8 percent against the 55 percent it needs, a 6% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
6%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
38.8%80% range 27 to 52
Needs
55%55 percent of the votes on the question
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
31 of 64 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 55
2035506580- History and structure
- 38.8% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 38.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Republican
- Rule to pass
- Colorado constitutional amendments need 55 percent of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign
Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.
Also on the Colorado ballot
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Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding
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Amendment 87
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Proposition 132
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Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
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Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
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Proposition 136
Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent
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Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Amendment 86 is forecast as a redistricting measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.