SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Arizona Proposition 318

Sex based school sports, restrooms, locker rooms

Requires teams designated by biological sex and bars transgender students from restrooms and locker rooms not matching birth sex. The forecast has Yes at 66.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 95% chance to pass.

Likely to passStatute referred by the legislatureTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
95%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
66.2%
80% range 54 to 78
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

15 of 15 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
66.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
66.2% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Referred by the Republican led Legislature, bypassing Gov. Hobbs. No campaign finance figures found.

Also on the Arizona ballot

Proposition 141
Ban vehicle miles traveled taxes
84%
Proposition 142
Ban race based preferences and DEI mandates
72%
Proposition 144
Voter ID for all voters including mail
>99%
Proposition 316
Cap local grocery taxes at 2 percent
83%
Proposition 317
Designate drug cartels as terrorist organizations
>99%
Proposition 319
Restrict photo radar traffic enforcement
88%
Proposition 320
Require 60 percent spending on instruction
81%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposition 318 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Arizona's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: newsfromthestates.com, azfamily.com, axios.com. All measures.