2026 ballot measure forecast

Utah Amendment A

Flexible publication of proposed amendments

Replaces the two month newspaper publication rule for proposed amendments, letting lawmakers set the format if notice is given 60 days before the election. The forecast has Yes at 63.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 91% chance to pass.

Likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureOtherUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

91%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

63.4%

80% range 51 to 75

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

None

No public polls found

County forecast

29 of 29 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 63.4% Yes
Polls: None
Forecast: 63.4% Yes
Yes leans: Neither party
Rule to pass: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.

The campaign

Passed Legislature unanimously; no opposition campaign.

Also on the Utah ballot

Amendment B

60 percent vote for tax raising initiatives

83%

Polls of the measure

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.

How this is built

Amendment A is forecast as a other measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Utah's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: deseret.com. All measures.