2026 ballot measure forecast

Maryland Question 3

Remove constitutional limits on congressional districting

Limits districting requirements to state legislative districts, sets no constitutional criteria for congressional maps, and lets the General Assembly give the Supreme Court of Maryland original jurisdiction over congressional map challenges; enables mid-decade congressional redistricting. The forecast has Yes at 44.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 16% chance to pass.

Likely to failConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureRedistrictingUpdated October 17, 2026

Chance to pass

16%

2,000 simulations

Forecast Yes

44.8%

80% range 39 to 51

Needs

50%

a simple majority

Polling average

37.0%

Yes, with undecided split two to one for No

County forecast

3 of 24 counties vote Yes

No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast

Where the Yes vote lands

needs 50

2035506580

History and structure: 69.5% Yes
Polls: 37.0% Yes
Forecast: 44.8% Yes
Yes leans: Democratic
Rule to pass: Simple majority. Ballot text rewritten by Supreme Court of Maryland order of Sept 3, 2026.

The campaign

Fight Back Maryland, Gov. Wes Moore, Democrats and unions support; Protect Maryland Votes (spokesman Doug Mayer) opposes; passed in August 2026 special session; no money totals found.

Also on the Maryland ballot

Question 1

Require budget to fund state worker contracts

>99%

Question 2

Temporary appointments to judicial disabilities commission

91%

Polls of the measure

3 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Yes	No	Undecided	Yes, adjusted
UMBC Institute of Politics	776 LV	2026-09-27	25	53	19	32.3%
Ragnar Research Partners (R) and Lincoln Park Strategies (D) · for the No side	600 LV	2026-09-13	28	40	31	42.7%
Hart Research Associates · for the Yes side	600 LV	2026-09-10	40	35	25	44.3%

How this is built

Question 3 is forecast as a redistricting measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Maryland's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: elections.maryland.gov , marylandmatters.org , nbcwashington.com. All measures.