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NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Alabama Statewide Amendment 4

Weekly national anthem in public schools

Requires local school boards to adopt policies for each public K to 12 school to play or perform the first stanza of the Star Spangled Banner at least once a week. The forecast has Yes at 66.4 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 96% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureEducationUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
96%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
66.4%
80% range 53 to 77
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

65 of 67 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
66.4% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
66.4% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Sponsored by Sen. Gerald Allen R; passed Senate 22 to 5 and House 75 to 27; no organized campaign reported.

Also on the Alabama ballot

Statewide Amendment 1
Lieutenant governor vacancies and legislative officer pay
97%
Statewide Amendment 2
Process for merging county school systems
84%
Statewide Amendment 3
Daily Pledge and student led prayer in schools
95%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Statewide Amendment 4 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Alabama's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: alabamareflector.com, theballotbrief.com, sos.alabama.gov. All measures.