2026 ballot measure forecast
North Dakota Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2
Free breakfast and lunch for all public school students
Requires public schools to give every student one free breakfast and one free lunch each school day, with full state reimbursement adjusted for inflation and the Legacy Fund earnings as fallback funding, starting 2027-28. The forecast has Yes at 45.8 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 37% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
37%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
45.8%80% range 34 to 59
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
5 of 53 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 45.8% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 45.8% Yes
- Yes leans
- Democratic
- Rule to pass
- Simple majority under current rules; unclear whether a same-day Measure 1 win would apply to it.
The campaign
Citizen sponsoring committee; estimated cost $124M to $134M per biennium; Farm Bureau neutral; no money totals found.
Also on the North Dakota ballot
Constitutional Measure No. 1
Require 60% voter approval for constitutional amendments
61%
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Initiated Constitutional Measure No. 2 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans Democratic. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with North Dakota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: valleynewslive.com, ndfb.org, sos.nd.gov. All measures.