2026 ballot measure forecast
Idaho Advisory Question
Advisory vote on official state gun
Nonbinding question asking voters which of six firearms, such as the Winchester Model 1894 or Colt M1911, the Legislature should name the official state gun. The forecast has Yes at 50.0 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 49% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
49%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
50.0%80% range 36 to 63
Needs
50%a simple majority
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
44 of 44 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580- History and structure
- 50.0% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 50.0% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Advisory and nonbinding; voters pick one of six options and the Legislature must pass a law afterward.
The campaign
Placed by HB 932, which passed 68 to 0 and 32 to 0 and was signed by Gov. Brad Little R; no campaign reported.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Advisory Question is forecast as a guns measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Idaho's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: en.wikipedia.org, idahocapitalsun.com. All measures.