SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Colorado Proposition 134

School sports teams by biological sex

Requires student athletes to play on school and college teams matching their biological sex. The forecast has Yes at 52.2 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 58% chance to pass.

Toss upCitizen initiated statuteTransgender policy and marriageUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
58%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
52.2%
80% range 39 to 65
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

50 of 64 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
52.2% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
52.2% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority of votes cast on the measure.
The campaign

Citizen initiative; Colorado Democratic Party opposes.

Also on the Colorado ballot

Proposition NN
Raise TABOR cap for K-12 school funding
95%
Amendment 81
Police must report undocumented violent offenders to DHS
37%
Amendment 82
Constitutional right to natural gas
18%
Amendment 83
Constitutional right to hunt and fish
76%
Amendment 84
ID number required on mail ballots
66%
Amendment 85
Plain language ballot questions
14%
Amendment 86
Limits on mid decade congressional redistricting
6%
Amendment 87
Graduated income tax for schools and health
33%
Proposition 132
Tougher fentanyl penalties
91%
Proposition 133
Life without parole for child sex trafficking
91%
Proposition 135
Ban gender transition surgeries for minors
57%
Proposition 136
Cap income tax rate at 4.4 percent
51%
Proposition 137
Sporting goods sales tax for conservation
69%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Proposition 134 is forecast as a transgender policy and marriage measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Colorado's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, koaa.com, coloradodems.org. All measures.