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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 ballot measure forecast

Wisconsin Question 3

Ban government discrimination or preferences by race or sex

Bars government entities from discriminating against or giving preferential treatment to anyone based on race, sex, color, ethnicity or national origin in public jobs, education, contracting and administration, effectively banning DEI preferences. The forecast has Yes at 55.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a 71% chance to pass.

Leans passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureCivil rightsUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
71%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
55.6%
80% range 42 to 68
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

69 of 72 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
55.6% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
55.6% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
Rule to pass
Simple majority. AJR 102.
The campaign

Yes: Sen. Steve Nass, Wisconsin Institute for Law and Liberty. No: Wisconsin Democracy Campaign and civil rights advocates. No money reported.

Also on the Wisconsin ballot

Question 1
Bar partial veto to raise taxes or fees
85%
Question 2
Bar closing places of worship during emergencies
72%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
Question 3 is forecast as a civil rights measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Wisconsin's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: wpr.org, somerswi.gov, will-law.org. All measures.