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2026 ballot measure forecast

Oklahoma State Question 847

Lower annual caps on taxable property value growth

Lowers annual caps on growth in taxable value from 3% to 1.75% for homesteads and farmland and from 5% to 4% for other property, and replaces the senior freeze with income based caps, starting 2027. The forecast has Yes at 72.6 percent against the 50 percent it needs, a >99% chance to pass.

Very likely to passConstitutional amendment referred by the legislatureProperty taxUpdated October 17, 2026
Chance to pass
>99%
2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
72.6%
80% range 61 to 82
Needs
50%
a simple majority
Polling average
None
No public polls found

County forecast

77 of 77 counties vote Yes
No +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 50
2035506580
History and structure
72.6% Yes
Polls
None
Forecast
72.6% Yes
Yes leans
Republican
The campaign

Authored by House Speaker Kyle Hilbert R, backed by Oklahoma Farm Bureau; opposed by Oklahoma Policy Institute and some Democrats over school and local revenue.

Also on the Oklahoma ballot

State Question 845
Restructure Judicial Nominating Commission
>99%

Polls of the measure

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedYesNoUndecidedYes, adjusted
No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot.
How this is built
State Question 847 is forecast as a property tax measure whose Yes vote leans Republican. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Oklahoma's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: okpolicy.org, theballotbrief.com, oklahoma.gov, news9.com. All measures.