2026 ballot measure forecast
Minnesota Constitutional Amendment 1
Permanent School Fund payouts to school districts
Replaces the requirement that Permanent School Fund principal stay perpetual and inviolate with a duty to preserve its purchasing power, letting companion law distribute 4.5% of the fund's three-year average value to districts each year, effective July 1, 2027. The forecast has Yes at 65.1 percent against the 53.2 percent it needs, a 88% chance to pass.
Chance to pass
88%2,000 simulations
Forecast Yes
65.1%80% range 52 to 76
Needs
53.2%a majority of all ballots cast, so a skipped question counts as No
Polling average
NoneNo public polls found
County forecast
87 of 87 counties vote YesNo +30Yes +30Hover a county for its forecast
Where the Yes vote lands
needs 53.2
2035506580- History and structure
- 65.1% Yes
- Polls
- None
- Forecast
- 65.1% Yes
- Yes leans
- Neither party
- Rule to pass
- Must win a majority of ALL ballots cast in the election; blank votes count as No. Ballot label number not confirmed.
The campaign
Sponsors Sen. Mary Kunesh (DFL) and Rep. Spencer Igo (R); House 134-0 (some sources 133-0), Senate 43-24 party line; education coalition incl. Education Minnesota backs it; no organized opposition or money reported.
Polls of the measure
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Yes | No | Undecided | Yes, adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this measure. The forecast rests on how comparable measures have run and how it reached the ballot. | ||||||
How this is built
Constitutional Amendment 1 is forecast as a education measure whose Yes vote leans to neither party. Comparable measures from 2018 to 2024 set how far its Yes share moves with Minnesota's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, and how it reached the ballot moves it further. Polls then pull the forecast toward them by recency and size, after splitting undecided voters two to one for No. Sources: news.ballotpedia.org, sspps.org, fox9.com. All measures.