2026 state legislative forecast
Maryland House of Delegates forecast
Democrats win control of the Maryland House of Delegates in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 141 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
104 to 112Median 107 ยท 71 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 102 D, 39 R
Environment
D +12.2Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Maryland House of Delegates map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 108 D to 33 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House of Delegates district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 seats | Jesse T Pippy, April Fleming Miller, Barrie S Ciliberti 2022 | Jerry Donald, Andrew Duck, Alleria Stanley vs Jason E. Keckler, April Fleming Miller, Jesse T. Pippy | R +8.5 | R +0.4 | 47% | Toss up |
| 30B | Seth Howard 2022 | Matt Johnston vs Seth Howard | R +7.3 | R +0.4 | 48% | Toss up |
| 42A | Nino Mangione 2022 | Jyoti Mohan vs Charles Edward Murphy, III | R +9.3 | R +3.4 | 31% | Lean R |
| 27C | Mark N Fisher 2022 | Jennifer M. Davidson vs Mark N. Fisher | R +17.1 | R +5.0 | 21% | Lean R |
| 34B | Susan K Mccomas 2022 | Anthony Lyon vs Jake Taylor | R +8.5 | R +5.4 | 22% | Lean R |
| 53 seats | April Rose, Christopher Eric Bouchat, Chris Tomlinson 2022 | Dayana Bergman, Alison Rudolph, Courtney Alexa Welch vs April R. Rose, Chris Tomlinson, Steve Whisler | R +18.8 | R +6.8 | 16% | Likely R |
| 363 seats | Jay A Jacobs, Jeff Ghrist, Steve Arentz 2022 | Nevin Crouse, Michelle Ravert, Crystal Woodward vs Jeff Ghrist, Jay A. Jacobs, Steve Arentz | R +19.2 | R +7.2 | 13% | Likely R |
| 29C | Todd B Morgan 2022 | Shaara Watts vs Todd B. Morgan | R +16.1 | R +10.1 | 7% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.