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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Ohio Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Ohio Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 17 of the 33 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 16 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 33On the ballot 17Ohio HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
11 to 13
Median 12 · 17 for a majority
Favored to flip
3to D0to R
After 2024: 9 D, 24 R
Environment
D +10.5
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Ohio Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2, not up in 2026District 3: Democrats >99%District 4, not up in 2026District 5: Democrats <1%District 6, not up in 2026District 7: Democrats 31%District 8, not up in 2026District 9: Democrats >99%District 10, not up in 2026District 11: Democrats >99%District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats 79%District 14, not up in 2026District 15: Democrats >99%District 16, not up in 2026District 17: Democrats <1%District 18, not up in 2026District 19: Democrats 14%District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats >99%District 22, not up in 2026District 23: Democrats >99%District 24, not up in 2026District 25: Democrats >99%District 26, not up in 2026District 27: Democrats >99%District 28, not up in 2026District 29: Democrats 5%District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats <1%District 32, not up in 2026District 33: Democrats 3%124567101112131417181920222526272930313233
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 12 D to 21 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 9: Democrats win >99%District 15: Democrats win >99%District 21: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 25: Democrats win >99%District 11: Democrats win >99%District 3: Democrats win >99%District 27: Democrats win >99%District 13: Democrats win 79%District 7: Democrats win 31%District 19: Democrats win 14%District 29: Democrats win 5%District 33: Democrats win 3%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 17: Democrats win <1%District 31: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
17 for a majority8131718

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
7Steve Wilson 2022Cara Jacob vs Zac HainesR +18.6R +3.531%Lean R
13Nathan H Manning 2022Joe Miller vs Gayle ManningR +8.7D +5.679%Lean D
19Andrew O Brenner 2022Janet Wagner vs Ryan RiversR +23.4R +7.414%Likely R
29Kirk Schuring 2022Thomas West vs Jane TimkenR +21.0R +10.75%Likely R
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.