2026 state legislative forecast
Washington House forecast
Democrats win control of the Washington House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 98 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
65 to 73Median 70 ยท 50 for a majority
Favored to flip
12to D0to R
After 2024: 59 D, 39 R
Environment
D +10.6Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Washington House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 70 D to 29 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39-2 | Carolyn Eslick 2024 | Ida Keeley vs Steve Ewing | R +10.2 | D +0.5 | 52% | Toss up |
| 35-2 | Travis Couture 2024 | Maria Littlesun vs Travis Couture | D +0.7 | D +2.3 | 62% | Lean D |
| 39-1 | Sam Low 2024 | Kathryn Lewandowsky vs Sam Low | R +7.9 | D +2.8 | 66% | Lean D |
| 12-1 | Brian Burnett 2024 | Stacy Willoughby vs Brian Burnett | R +7.3 | D +3.7 | 72% | Lean D |
| 18-1 | Stephanie Mcclintock 2024 | Randi Knott vs Stephanie McClintock | R +1.8 | D +4.0 | 73% | Lean D |
| 25-2 | Cyndy Jacobsen 2024 | Jenn Marie Strickling vs Cyndy Jacobsen | R +1.4 | D +4.2 | 74% | Lean D |
| 14-1 | Gloria Mendoza 2024 | Chelsea Dimas vs Gloria Mendoza | R +3.9 | D +4.6 | 75% | Lean D |
| 2-2 | Matt Marshall 2024 | Angela Taylor vs Matt Marshall | R +15.4 | R +4.9 | 23% | Lean R |
| 25-1 | Michael Keaton 2024 | David Berg vs Michael Keaton | D +1.8 | D +5.6 | 80% | Lean D |
| 6-2 | Jenny Graham 2024 | Julia Payne vs Jonathan Bingle | R +12.3 | R +6.1 | 18% | Likely R |
| 19-1 | Jim Walsh 2024 | Kevin Moynihan vs Jim Walsh | R +15.3 | R +7.3 | 14% | Likely R |
| 31-1 | Drew Stokesbary 2024 | Stephen Szczurko-Walton vs Drew Stokesbary | R +7.8 | R +7.3 | 13% | Likely R |
| 6-1 | Mike Volz 2024 | Michaela Kelso vs Alan Nolan | R +10.9 | R +7.5 | 13% | Likely R |
| 31-2 | Joshua Penner 2024 | John Bielka vs Josh Penner | R +14.2 | R +7.8 | 12% | Likely R |
| 26-2 | Michelle Caldier 2024 | Renee Hernandez Greenfield vs Katy Cornell | D +8.6 | D +10.2 | 94% | Likely D |
| 20-2 | Ed Orcutt 2024 | Evan Jones vs Ed Orcutt | R +20.8 | R +10.4 | 8% | Likely R |
| 16-1 | Mark Klicker 2024 | Kyle Palmer vs Mark Klicker | R +14.4 | R +11.5 | 4% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.