2026 state legislative forecast
Michigan Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the Michigan Senate in 96% of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 38 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
96%D1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
20 to 24Median 22 · 20 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 20 D, 18 R
Environment
D +12.3Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Michigan Senate map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 22 D to 16 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Jon C Bumstead 2022 | Rebecca Amidon vs Kim Cole | R +7.0 | R +1.0 | 42% | Toss up |
| 12 | Kevin Hertel 2022 | Kevin Hertel vs John Goldwater | R +7.3 | D +4.6 | 75% | Lean D |
| 37 | John N Damoose 2022 | Kate Gallup vs John Damoose | R +10.9 | R +5.5 | 21% | Lean R |
| 9 | Michael Webber 2022 | Theresa Brooks vs Michael Webber | R +5.2 | D +8.3 | 90% | Likely D |
| 35 | Kristen Mcdonald Rivet 2022 | Chedrick Greene vs Jason Tunney | D +0.9 | D +9.5 | 92% | Likely D |
| 30 | Mark Huizenga 2022 | Carol Glanville vs Mark E. Huizenga | D +4.6 | D +10.7 | 95% | Likely D |
| 13 | Rosemary K Bayer 2022 | Sean Carlson vs Ryan Berman | R +1.7 | D +10.9 | 95% | Likely D |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. Michigan's Senate map was redrawn by court order in Agee v. Benson, approved July 26, 2024, for the 2026 elections. Each district's lean is the 2024 presidential vote on the new lines, and the 16 metro Detroit districts that were redrawn carry no weight from their 2022 results. The map's shapes for the redrawn districts still follow the older lines. All chambers.