2026 state legislative forecast
Maryland Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the Maryland Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 47 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
35 to 39Median 36 · 24 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 34 D, 13 R
Environment
D +12.2Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Maryland Senate map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 37 D to 10 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | William "Bill" Folden 2022 | Lara Westdorp vs William Folden | R +8.5 | R +1.9 | 38% | Toss up |
| 31 | Bryan W Simonaire 2022 | Brent Mulrooney vs Nicholaus Kipke | R +9.9 | D +2.3 | 63% | Lean D |
| 7 | J B Jennings 2022 | Bill Geibler vs J. B. Jennings | R +15.7 | R +3.6 | 28% | Lean R |
| 42 | Chris West 2022 | Stephanie Popescu vs Kevin Ford | R +8.0 | D +4.2 | 75% | Lean D |
| 37 | Johnny Mautz 2022 | Katie G. Clendaniel vs Johnny Mautz | R +10.0 | R +6.0 | 18% | Likely R |
| 29 | Jack Bailey 2022 | Chuck Borges vs Jack Bailey | R +18.4 | R +6.4 | 17% | Likely R |
| 5 | Justin Ready 2022 | Gary Foote vs Justin Ready | R +18.8 | R +6.8 | 15% | Likely R |
| 36 | Stephen S Hershey Jr 2022 | Nivek Johnson vs Steve Hershey | R +19.2 | R +7.2 | 14% | Likely R |
| 6 | Johnny Ray Salling 2022 | Justin Holliday vs Johnny Ray Salling | R +17.5 | R +10.3 | 6% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.