2026 state legislative forecast
Illinois House forecast
Democrats win control of the Illinois House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 118 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 3 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
85 to 93Median 89 ยท 60 for a majority
Favored to flip
11to D0to R
After 2024: 78 D, 40 R
Environment
D +12.7Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
Illinois House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 89 D to 29 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82 | Nicole La Ha 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +6.4 | D +0.1 | 50% | Toss up |
| 70 | Jeff Keicher 2024 | Veronica Garcia-Martinez vs Jeff Keicher | R +6.4 | R +0.4 | 46% | Toss up |
| 64 | Tom Weber 2024 | AJ Johnson vs Tom Weber | R +13.3 | R +0.7 | 45% | Toss up |
| 48 | Jennifer Sanalitro 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +4.9 | D +2.3 | 65% | Lean D |
| 118 | Paul Jacobs 2024 | Homer "Chip" Markel vs Scott Doody | R +15.7 | R +3.1 | 32% | Lean R |
| 20 | Brad Stephens 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +9.4 | D +3.3 | 71% | Lean D |
| 79 | Jackie Haas 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +5.2 | D +4.7 | 79% | Lean D |
| 71 | Dan Swanson 2024 | Kermit Thomas vs Dan Swanson | R +7.7 | D +5.0 | 77% | Lean D |
| 111 | Amy Elik 2024 | Rosetta "Rosie" Brown vs Amy Elik | R +12.2 | R +5.1 | 22% | Lean R |
| 69 | Joe Sosnowski 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +13.4 | R +5.7 | 18% | Lean R |
| 65 | Dan Ugaste 2024 | Ricky Rivard vs Dan Ugaste | R +1.1 | D +6.5 | 84% | Likely D |
| 88 | Regan Deering 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +19.8 | R +7.3 | 13% | Likely R |
| 75 | Jed Davis 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +17.8 | R +7.9 | 12% | Likely R |
| 37 | Patrick Sheehan 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +20.5 | R +8.0 | 11% | Likely R |
| 63 | Steven Reick 2024 | Primary results not posted | D +0.8 | D +10.3 | 94% | Likely D |
| 114 | Kevin Schmidt 2024 | George McClellan Jr. vs Kevin Schmidt | D +1.4 | D +11.2 | 96% | Likely D |
| 74 | Bradley J Fritts 2024 | Primary results not posted | R +17.4 | R +11.3 | 4% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.