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NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Montana Senate forecast

Republicans win control of the Montana Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. 25 of the 50 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 25 carry over until 2028; 0 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 50On the ballot 25Montana HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
19 to 22
Median 20 · 26 for a majority
Favored to flip
1to D0to R
After 2024: 16 D, 27 R
Environment
D +10.2
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Montana Senate map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2, not up in 2026District 3, not up in 2026District 4: Democrats <1%District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats <1%District 7, not up in 2026District 8: Democrats >99%District 9: Democrats <1%District 10: Democrats 74%District 11: Democrats 30%District 12: Democrats 29%District 13, not up in 2026District 14: Democrats <1%District 15, not up in 2026District 16, not up in 2026District 17, not up in 2026District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats <1%District 20, not up in 2026District 21, not up in 2026District 22: Democrats <1%District 23: Democrats 97%District 24, not up in 2026District 25: Democrats <1%District 26, not up in 2026District 27, not up in 2026District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats 97%District 30, not up in 2026District 31: Democrats >99%District 32: Democrats >99%District 33, not up in 2026District 34: Democrats <1%District 35, not up in 2026District 36, not up in 2026District 37, not up in 2026District 38, not up in 2026District 39, not up in 2026District 40, not up in 2026District 41: Democrats >99%District 42: Democrats 91%District 43: Democrats <1%District 44, not up in 2026District 45, not up in 2026District 46, not up in 2026District 47, not up in 2026District 48: Democrats >99%District 49: Democrats >99%District 50: Democrats >99%12345678910121314151617181921232526282930313536383940414243444546
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 20 D to 30 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 8: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win >99%District 41: Democrats win >99%District 48: Democrats win >99%District 50: Democrats win >99%District 49: Democrats win >99%District 32: Democrats win >99%District 29: Democrats win 97%District 23: Democrats win 97%District 42: Democrats win 91%District 10: Democrats win 74%District 11: Democrats win 30%District 12: Democrats win 29%District 25: Democrats win <1%District 4: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 9: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 22: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 34: Democrats win <1%District 43: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
26 for a majority142026

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
11Daniel Emrich 2022Valynda Holland vs Steven GallowayR +20.6R +3.130%Lean R
12Wendy Mckamey 2022Mindy Leach vs George NikolakakosR +15.8R +3.729%Lean R
10Not on fileMargaret Mitchell vs Jessica DyrdahlR +5.8D +4.474%Lean D
42Mary Ann Dunwell 2022Mary Ann Dunwell vs Stephen LapraimR +13.5D +8.891%Likely D
23Not on fileEmma Kerr-Carpenter vs Joanna OblanderD +1.1D +11.397%Likely D
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.