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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Washington Senate forecast

Democrats win control of the Washington Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. 24 of the 49 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 25 carry over until 2028; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe DUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 49On the ballot 24Washington HouseAll chambers
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
31 to 32
Median 32 · 25 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 29 D, 19 R, 1 other
Environment
D +10.6
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Washington Senate map

District 1, not up in 2026District 2, not up in 2026District 3, not up in 2026District 4, not up in 2026District 5, not up in 2026District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats <1%District 8: Democrats <1%District 9, not up in 2026District 10, not up in 2026District 11, not up in 2026District 12, not up in 2026District 13: Democrats <1%District 14, not up in 2026District 15: Democrats <1%District 16, not up in 2026District 17, not up in 2026District 18, not up in 2026District 19, not up in 2026District 20, not up in 2026District 21: Democrats >99%District 22, not up in 2026District 23, not up in 2026District 24, not up in 2026District 25, not up in 2026District 26: Democrats >99%District 27, not up in 2026District 28, not up in 2026District 29: Democrats >99%District 30: Democrats >99%District 31: Democrats 61%District 32: Democrats >99%District 33: Democrats >99%District 34: Democrats >99%District 35: Democrats 88%District 36: Democrats >99%District 37: Democrats >99%District 38: Democrats >99%District 39, not up in 2026District 40, not up in 2026District 41, not up in 2026District 42: Democrats >99%District 43: Democrats >99%District 44: Democrats >99%District 45: Democrats >99%District 46: Democrats >99%District 47: Democrats >99%District 48: Democrats >99%District 49, not up in 2026234567891012131415161719202122232425272829313539404244
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 32 D to 18 R
Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotDistrict 21: Democrats win >99%District 29: Democrats win >99%District 30: Democrats win >99%District 32: Democrats win >99%District 33: Democrats win >99%District 34: Democrats win >99%District 36: Democrats win >99%District 37: Democrats win >99%District 38: Democrats win >99%District 43: Democrats win >99%District 44: Democrats win >99%District 45: Democrats win >99%District 46: Democrats win >99%District 47: Democrats win >99%District 48: Democrats win >99%District 26: Democrats win >99%District 42: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win 88%District 31: Democrats win 61%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 7: Democrats win <1%District 8: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%Not on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballotNot on the 2026 ballot
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
25 for a majority273034

Every Senate district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
31Phil Fortunato 2022Tamara Stramel vs Phil FortunatoR +9.0D +1.661%Toss up
35Drew C Macewen 2022Carolina Mejia vs Drew MacEwenD +0.7D +7.488%Likely D
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.