2026 state legislative forecast
New Mexico House forecast
Democrats win control of the New Mexico House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. All 70 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 1 race is within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
45 to 49Median 47 · 36 for a majority
Favored to flip
4to D1to R
After 2024: 45 D, 25 R
Environment
D +10.9Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
New Mexico House map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 47 D to 23 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every House district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Not on file 2022 | Lisa K Curtis vs Nicole Chavez | R +9.9 | D +0.6 | 54% | Toss up |
| 7 | Tanya R Mirabal Moya 2024 | Rickie Allen Gonzales II vs Tanya R Mirabal Moya | R +14.4 | R +4.3 | 27% | Lean R |
| 38 | Not on file 2022 | David L Mooney vs Rebecca Dow | D +1.4 | D +4.9 | 77% | Lean D |
| 57 | Not on file 2022 | Chriselle Verene Martinez vs Catherine Jeanette Cullen | R +3.6 | D +5.5 | 78% | Lean D |
| 32 | Not on file 2022 | Laura Mairel Parra vs Jenifer Marie Jones | R +0.6 | D +6.0 | 82% | Lean D |
| 39 | Not on file 2022 | Raul S Turrieta vs Luis M Terrazas | R +6.6 | D +6.0 | 83% | Lean D |
| 22 | Stefani Lord 2024 | William (Bill) Scott vs Stefani Lord · Zachary P Withers (I) | R +10.5 | R +9.3 | 8% | Likely R |
| 68 | Not on file 2022 | Charlotte L Little vs David E Adkins | D +0.3 | D +10.7 | 95% | Likely D |
| 8 | Brian G Baca 2024 | Katherine Joanna Gauer vs Brian G Baca | R +19.5 | R +11.1 | 5% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.