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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 state legislative forecast

Utah House forecast

Republicans win control of the Utah House in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Republican majority today. All 75 seats are on the 2026 ballot; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.

Safe RUpdated October 17, 2026Seats 75On the ballot 75Utah SenateAll chambers
Chance of control
<1%D>99%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
20 to 27
Median 23 ยท 38 for a majority
Favored to flip
8to D0to R
After 2024: 14 D, 61 R
Environment
D +14.6
Shift from the 2024 presidential vote

Utah House map

District 1: Democrats <1%District 2: Democrats <1%District 3: Democrats 8%District 4: Democrats 32%District 5: Democrats <1%District 6: Democrats <1%District 7: Democrats 4%District 8: Democrats 60%District 9: Democrats 11%District 10: Democrats 97%District 11: Democrats 18%District 12: Democrats <1%District 13: Democrats <1%District 14: Democrats <1%District 15: Democrats <1%District 16: Democrats 3%District 17: Democrats 3%District 18: Democrats <1%District 19: Democrats <1%District 20: Democrats 19%District 21: Democrats >99%District 22: Democrats >99%District 23: Democrats >99%District 24: Democrats >99%District 25: Democrats >99%District 26: Democrats 94%District 27: Democrats 78%District 28: Democrats <1%District 29: Democrats <1%District 30: Democrats >99%District 31: Democrats >99%District 32: Democrats >99%District 33: Democrats >99%District 34: Democrats >99%District 35: Democrats >99%District 36: Democrats 95%District 37: Democrats >99%District 38: Democrats <1%District 39: Democrats 92%District 40: Democrats >99%District 41: Democrats >99%District 42: Democrats 95%District 43: Democrats 96%District 44: Democrats 33%District 45: Democrats 5%District 46: Democrats 18%District 47: Democrats <1%District 48: Democrats 7%District 49: Democrats <1%District 50: Democrats <1%District 51: Democrats <1%District 52: Democrats <1%District 53: Democrats <1%District 54: Democrats <1%District 55: Democrats <1%District 56: Democrats 1%District 57: Democrats <1%District 58: Democrats <1%District 59: Democrats 50%District 60: Democrats <1%District 61: Democrats 3%District 62: Democrats 4%District 63: Democrats <1%District 64: Democrats <1%District 65: Democrats <1%District 66: Democrats <1%District 67: Democrats <1%District 68: Democrats <1%District 69: Democrats 3%District 70: Democrats <1%District 71: Democrats <1%District 72: Democrats <1%District 73: Democrats <1%District 74: Democrats <1%District 75: Democrats <1%1245628295966676869707172737475
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R

District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.

Pick a district

Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.

Every seat

Average 23 D to 52 R
District 21: Democrats win >99%District 22: Democrats win >99%District 23: Democrats win >99%District 24: Democrats win >99%District 25: Democrats win >99%District 31: Democrats win >99%District 32: Democrats win >99%District 33: Democrats win >99%District 34: Democrats win >99%District 35: Democrats win >99%District 40: Democrats win >99%District 41: Democrats win >99%District 37: Democrats win >99%District 30: Democrats win >99%District 10: Democrats win 97%District 43: Democrats win 96%District 42: Democrats win 95%District 36: Democrats win 95%District 26: Democrats win 94%District 39: Democrats win 92%District 27: Democrats win 78%District 8: Democrats win 60%District 59: Democrats win 50%District 44: Democrats win 33%District 4: Democrats win 32%District 20: Democrats win 19%District 11: Democrats win 18%District 46: Democrats win 18%District 9: Democrats win 11%District 3: Democrats win 8%District 48: Democrats win 7%District 45: Democrats win 5%District 62: Democrats win 4%District 7: Democrats win 4%District 17: Democrats win 3%District 16: Democrats win 3%District 69: Democrats win 3%District 61: Democrats win 3%District 56: Democrats win 1%District 38: Democrats win <1%District 14: Democrats win <1%District 18: Democrats win <1%District 28: Democrats win <1%District 49: Democrats win <1%District 1: Democrats win <1%District 2: Democrats win <1%District 5: Democrats win <1%District 6: Democrats win <1%District 12: Democrats win <1%District 13: Democrats win <1%District 15: Democrats win <1%District 19: Democrats win <1%District 29: Democrats win <1%District 47: Democrats win <1%District 50: Democrats win <1%District 51: Democrats win <1%District 52: Democrats win <1%District 53: Democrats win <1%District 54: Democrats win <1%District 55: Democrats win <1%District 57: Democrats win <1%District 58: Democrats win <1%District 60: Democrats win <1%District 63: Democrats win <1%District 64: Democrats win <1%District 65: Democrats win <1%District 66: Democrats win <1%District 67: Democrats win <1%District 68: Democrats win <1%District 70: Democrats win <1%District 71: Democrats win <1%District 72: Democrats win <1%District 73: Democrats win <1%District 74: Democrats win <1%District 75: Democrats win <1%
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe R
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
38 for a majority122538

Every House district

DistrictLast winner2026 nominees2024 leanForecastDem winRating
59Mike Kohler 2024Celeste T. Johnson vs Luke SearleR +11.1R +0.250%Toss up
8Jason B Kyle 2024Kim James vs Jason B Kyle ยท Libby Shelton (O)R +13.1D +1.660%Toss up
44Jordan Daniel Teuscher 2024Jess Birtcher vs Jordan TeuscherR +12.5R +2.833%Lean R
4Kera Yates Birkeland 2024Zane Woolstenhulme vs Tiara AuxierR +16.2R +3.132%Lean R
27Anthony Edward Loubet 2024Liz Oates vs Anthony Loubet ยท Jeffrey Marshall (O)R +6.9D +5.578%Lean D
20Melissa Garff Ballard 2024Phil Graves vs Melissa BallardR +7.5R +5.719%Lean R
46Cal Roberts 2024Braxten Rutherford vs Cal RobertsR +20.7R +6.218%Likely R
11Katy Hall 2024Dave Calder vs Katy HallR +20.7R +6.318%Likely R
9Jake Sawyer 2024Angela Choberka vs Jake SawyerR +21.4R +7.611%Likely R
39Ken Ivory 2024Drew Howells vs Ken IvoryR +5.1D +9.692%Likely D
3Jason E Thompson 2024Patrick Belmont (I) vs Jason E. ThompsonR +10.8R +9.78% ILikely R
48Doug K Fiefia 2024Benyde Walker vs Jake HunsakerR +20.4R +9.87%Likely R
26Matt Macpherson 2024Michael E Finch vs Matt MacPherson ยท Travis Alico (O)R +1.3D +10.494%Likely D
62Norm Thurston 2024David Chappell vs Norm ThurstonR +18.8R +10.74%Likely R
36Jim Dunnigan 2024Blake Townsend vs Jim DunniganR +3.9D +10.895%Likely D
7Ryan D Wilcox 2024Bianca Mittendorf vs Ryan D. WilcoxR +25.3R +11.04%Likely R
43Steve Eliason 2024Ofa Matagi vs Steve EliasonD +5.8D +11.496%Likely D
45Tracy Miller 2024Rod Moser vs Tracy MillerR +16.9R +11.45%Likely R
42Clint Okerlund 2024Iva Williams vs Clint OkerlundD +2.6D +11.495%Likely D
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.