2026 state legislative forecast
California Senate forecast
Democrats win control of the California Senate in nearly every one of 2,000 simulations, against a Democratic majority today. 20 of the 40 seats are on the 2026 ballot and 20 carry over until 2028; 2 races are within a 35 to 65 split.
Chance of control
>99%D<1%R
Democratic seats, 80% range
31 to 34Median 33 · 21 for a majority
Favored to flip
2to D0to R
After 2024: 31 D, 9 R
Environment
D +13.5Shift from the 2024 presidential vote
California Senate map
Safe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up in 2026
District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters live in the precinct returns, not drawn from the official boundary files.
Pick a district
Hover the map for the odds in any district. Click one to pin it here and find it in the table below.
Every seat
Average 33 D to 7 RSafe DLean DToss upLean RSafe RNot up
Democratic seats across 2,000 simulations
Every Senate district
| District | Last winner | 2026 nominees | 2024 lean | Forecast | Dem win | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | Not on file 2022 | Chris Duncan vs Tony Strickland | R +13.8 | R +0.3 | 50% | Toss up |
| 6 | Not on file 2022 | Sean Frame vs Roger Niello | R +11.4 | D +2.1 | 62% | Lean D |
| 4 | Not on file 2022 | Jaron Brandon vs Alexandra Duarte | R +8.0 | D +5.5 | 79% | Lean D |
| 40 | Not on file 2022 | Mara Elliott vs Kristie Bruce-Lane | R +6.2 | D +7.3 | 87% | Likely D |
| 32 | Not on file 2022 | Tiffanie Tate vs Kelly Seyarto | R +24.0 | R +10.9 | 6% | Likely R |
How this is built
Each district starts from its 2024 presidential vote, read off the precincts that voted in it, and moves with the state's 2026 House forecast and the national generic ballot. Half of what the last legislative winner ran ahead of the district carries over, 2026 primary turnout moves districts where it is posted, and district and statewide legislative polls count by recency and sample. A seat with no candidate from one party is called for the other. 2,000 simulations share a national, a state and a district shock. The map's district shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are in the precinct returns. All chambers.